On paper, credit unions look healthier in mid-2025 than they did at the end of 2024. Underneath, the picture is more fragile than it appears.

Assets and deposits are growing again.
Most credit unions are profitable.
The system as a whole looks stable.

But if you read the latest NCUA Quarterly U.S. Map Review – Year Ending Second Quarter 2025, the story shifts: median membership is shrinking, loans are slightly negative, and delinquency has settled into a higher band than before.

Zooming out from Q4 2024 through Q2 2025, a clear pattern emerges:

The balance sheet is improving.
The member relationship is not.

This isn’t a crisis story. It’s a crossroads story.

From Flat to Flow: Assets and Deposits Are Finally Moving Again

At the end of 2024, the median credit union was growing, but slowly: assets were up 0.9% and shares and deposits up 0.8% over the year ending Q4 2024.

By Q2 2025, that picture improved significantly:

Median asset growth: 2.3% (up from –0.2% a year earlier)
Median share & deposit growth: 2.2% (up from –1.2% in the prior year)

At the aggregate level, the system looks even stronger:

Total assets reached $2.38 trillion, up 3.6% year-over-year.
Shares and deposits grew 5.0%, to $2.02 trillion.

The composition of deposits also shifted:

Other deposits (including money markets and share certificates) grew 7.4%, led by share certificates, which climbed 9.3%.

Translation:
Members are still willing to park money with credit unions—especially in higher-yield products—when pricing and options are competitive.

But growth in assets and deposits alone doesn’t mean the relationship is deepening. It simply means liquidity is there—for now.

Membership: Growing in Aggregate, Shrinking at the Median

Here’s the tension that defines 2025:

The system’s total membership is growing.
The typical credit union’s membership is not.

By Q2 2025, total membership across federally insured credit unions reached 143.8 million, continuing a long-term upward trend.

Yet at the median:

Membership declined by 0.5% over the year ending Q2 2025.
Roughly 55% of credit unions had fewer members than a year earlier.

The geography of membership reinforces this divide:

States like Alaska (+3.3%) and Montana (+1.4%) saw the strongest median membership growth.
At the same time, New Jersey (–1.9%) and Pennsylvania (–1.7%) posted the largest median declines.

And when you slice by asset size, the picture sharpens:

Credit unions over $1B in assets grew loans, membership, and net worth solidly (loan growth 4.6–7.6%, membership growth 3.1–5.9%).
Smaller credit unions (especially between $50M and $100M in assets) saw loan declines of 8.9% and membership declines of 9.8% over the year.

In other words:
Growth is concentrating in a smaller number of large institutions. Smaller credit unions are losing members—and losing relevance.

Loans: When the Balance Sheet Grows but Lending Softens

One of the most striking trends in Q2 2025 is the contrast between growing deposits and flat-to-negative lending.

At the median:

Loans outstanding declined by 0.2% over the year ending Q2 2025, compared with +2.4% loan growth at the median the year before.

State-level differences are stark:

Nevada (+6.6%) and Alaska (+4.6%) posted strong median loan growth.
A number of states reported median loan declines, reflecting weaker demand or tighter credit.

At the system level, credit unions are still lending:

Larger institutions (> $1B) reported loan growth between 4.6% and 7.6% over the year ending Q2 2025.

But smaller institutions saw material pullbacks, especially in consumer and real estate segments.

Layer on top of this a broader industry shift noted by independent analysts: commercial loans (secured by real estate and non-real estate) have risen by roughly $42 billion since year-end 2022, changing the risk profile of many portfolios.

Big picture:
Loan demand hasn’t disappeared—but it has become uneven and more concentrated in larger, growth-oriented institutions. For many smaller CUs, “prudence” is starting to look a lot like retreat.

Delinquency: Higher Plateau, Not a Spike

Delinquency tells you when consumer stress is starting to bite. Here, the story is subtle but important.

At the end of 2023, the median total delinquency rate was 61 bps.
By the end of 2024, it had risen to 69 bps.
By Q2 2025, delinquency eased slightly to 65 bps, but remained well above its earlier levels.

This is not crisis territory. But it is a new normal:

Credit stress has shifted from “unusually low” to “quietly elevated.”

For boards and risk committees, this matters:

Provision expenses are rising (up 4.6% year-over-year to $13.6B annualized by Q2 2025).
The cushion between risk and performance is thinner than it looks in headline ROA figures.

The takeaway?
Delinquency isn’t spiking—but it’s also not going back to pre-tightening lows. Credit unions will need better early-warning insights and member-level visibility to manage this new plateau.

Despite softer loan growth at the median, the system is still leaning into lending relative to deposits.

In Q4 2024, loan-to-share ratios were already elevated in many markets, with system medians in the high 60s.
By Q2 2025, the median loan-to-share ratio stood around 70%, up slightly from earlier quarters.

For some states—and many larger credit unions—ratios climb into the high 80s and 90s, raising familiar questions about liquidity, funding strategies, and interest-rate risk.

As deposits flow into higher-yield products and loans moderate, the balancing act gets harder:

Grow loans too aggressively and liquidity tightens.
Let loans stagnate and earnings fall behind at a time when competition is intensifying.

Profitability: Strong Headlines, Uneven Reality

System-wide profitability looks solid:

Total net interest margin widened by 11.9%, to $77.8B annualized by Q2 2025.
Around 87% of credit unions reported positive year-to-date net income in Q2 2025, up from 84% the year prior.

At the median, ROAA sits in the low-to-mid 70 bps range, with wide variation by state and asset size.

But profitability is increasingly a scale story:

The largest credit unions control nearly 80% of system assets and are growing membership, loans, and net worth faster than the rest of the system.
Smaller institutions are profitable—but many are doing so by tightening lending, trimming expenses, and accepting lower growth.

The headline looks strong. The median tells a more complex story.

What This All Means Heading Into 2026

Taken together, Q4 2024 through Q2 2025 paints a clear picture:

The balance sheet has healed faster than the relationship.
Assets and deposits are growing; membership at the median is not.
Growth is concentrating in larger institutions.
Big CUs are pulling away in membership, loans, and net worth.
Loan demand is softening at the median—but not evenly.
Some states and asset tiers are still growing; others are in retreat.
Delinquency has reset to a higher plateau.
Not a fire alarm, but a persistent risk that requires better insight and earlier intervention.
Profitability hides structural gaps.
The system looks strong overall, but smaller CUs face mounting pressure from membership decline, weaker loan growth, and digital competition.

Strategic Questions Every CU Should Be Asking

Going into 2026, the most important questions aren’t purely financial—they’re strategic:

Membership:
If the system is adding members but the median CU is losing them, which side of that line are you on?
Digital relevance:
Are members using your channels to understand their finances, or only to move money they already decided about somewhere else?
Risk and resilience:
Do you see stress building early enough—at the segment and household level—to help members before delinquency appears?
Scale and partnership:
If growth and capabilities are concentrating in larger CUs, how will you compete—alone or with aligned partners?

The NCUA data doesn’t describe a system in crisis.
It describes a system in transition, where financial stability and member relevance are diverging trends.

The institutions that win the next decade will be those that:

Treat membership decline as a leading indicator, not a lagging metric.
Use data not just to file call reports, but to engage members proactively.
Modernize in ways that preserve the cooperative mission, not dilute it.
Choose partners who strengthen their member relationship instead of competing for it.

Because in a world where the numbers still look good, the real risk isn’t on the balance sheet. It’s in the member’s daily decisions.

Data References

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